Aging effect
The fact that in China and Europe, the gross return on investments will decline in the long term. This is because the shrinking workforce means that more capital is used, and the return on this capital thus falls. As a result, there is likely to be an automatic transfer of capital from the aging Western industrialized countries to the U.S. (characterized by an almost ideal population pyramid) and to certain emerging and developing countries characterized by political stability and a high degree of literacy, above all (in the longer term) to India. –
See age dependency ratio, aging, currency swing, dissaving, global macro, Japan syndrome, capital flight, debt ratio, public sector. – Cf. ECB Monthly Bulletin of January 2008, pp. 83 et seq. (Inclusion of China and India in the global economy; overviews), ECB Monthly Bulletin of June 2009, pp. 93 et seq. Projection of age-related government spending; overviews).
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University Professor Dr. Gerhard Merk, Dipl.rer.pol., Dipl.rer.oec.
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